Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Smart Success Strategy – Investing and Stock NewsSmart Success Strategy – Investing and Stock News

Investing

Historian who predicted almost every election since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in Trump-Harris matchup

The ‘Keys to the White House’ are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.

Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right. 

Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key,’ and if ‘false,’ their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party’s candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.

At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic ‘key’ for President Biden’s incumbency – but the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift. 

The ‘keys’ are as follows: 
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change, 
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma

Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman’s prediction. These include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.

There are still four more keys that have yet to be handed out. 

The remaining keys include the third party factor, which Lichtman says is notable given Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s place in the race.

Keys are also still in the air for having ‘no social unrest,’ as well as ‘foreign military failure’ and ‘foreign military success.’

If Democrats lose three more keys, then they would be the projected ‘losers,’ according to the election prognosticator’s formula.

A final prediction has not yet been made for the 2024 race, but Lichtman told News Nation that he believes ‘a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.’

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016, and Biden in 2020. The historian will make his final prediction for this cycle after Democrats choose their nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
Enter Your Information Below To Receive Latest News, And Articles.



    Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

    You May Also Like

    Editor's Pick

    The energy revolution is here to stay, and electric vehicles (EVs) have become part of the mainstream narrative. Despite geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, the...

    Editor's Pick

    Overview Mexico’s Sinaloa state hosts a number of prolific silver and gold mines, including McEwen Mining’s (TSX:MUX) El Gallo Complex, Americas Gold and Silver’s...

    Editor's Pick

    Uranium is an important energy sector commodity, and its rising value has attracted investor interest. 2023 has seen uranium prices solidly above the important...

    Investing

    A new survey shows that the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and President Biden is thin, but Biden faces a deficit in...

    Disclaimer: smartsuccessstrategy.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.


    Copyright © 2024 smartsuccessstrategy.com